THE BLOG:
Helping you navigate the market’s ongoing journey.
April 30, 2023
(+ 6 )
We are now at four weeks with the S&P 500 weekly close barely budging. The week itself was more eventful with an impressive reversal from the mid-week low. The good news for the bulls includes a VIX well below 20, sentiment remaining negative and finally some growth sectors showing strength. We remain bullish with the short-term index at +1, while the long-term index is at 5. Yields, the USD, and LEI’s continue to be non-factors for the moment. Stay the course until factors change.
April 21, 2023
( +7 )
This is the third straight week where the S&P 500 has barely budged. The good news for the bulls includes a VIX well below 20, sentiment remaining negative, and pockets of strength in homebuilders and medical devices. We remain bullish with the short-term index at 2, while the long-term index is at 5. Boring remains the theme here. Yields, the USD, and LEI’s continue to be non-factors for the moment. Stay the course until factors change.
April 14, 2023
(+ 8 )
Another flat week for the markets. The VIX continues to drop and sits at 17, while sentiment turned more negative and made us feel a little more positive that sentiment is still on the side of the bulls. The short-term index is at 4, while the long-term index is at 4. We are not at overbought levels yet, so we may have more gas in the tank before a pause is in the cards.
March 31, 2023
( +10 )
A great week for the bulls with the S&P 500 up about three and a half percent. Conditions were ripe for a move up and a calming in the banking crisis was the catalyst we needed. The VIX continues to drop and sits below 20, while sentiment and market breadth continues to be positive for the bulls. The short-term index is at 5, while the long-term index is at 5. We are not at overbought levels yet, so we may have more gas in the tank before a pause is in the cards.
March 26, 2023
( +1 )
A second positive week was nice to see considering the continued banking crisis remains top of mind. The VIX is calming down and sits in the low 20s, while sentiment continues to be negative. The short-term index is at 2, while the long-term index is at -1. We are stuck in neutral waiting for the next move to take shape. Everything that worried us recently about the markets including the US dollar and 2-year US Treasury yield continues to improve.
March 10, 2023
( -7 )
The move to bullish territory failed and we are quickly on the verge of a sell signal. Have regulators done enough to stabilize market fears is the question for this week. The VIX is back above 20, and sentiment continues to be negative, The short-term index is at -5, while the long-term index is at -2. Everything that worried us last week including the US dollar and 2-year US Treasury yield continues to improve.
March 3, 2023
( +3 )
We finally broke out of neutral territory on March 3rd led by a strong two-day rally in Growth stocks. The VIX is decisively below 20, and sentiment continues to be negative; both are positive signs for the bulls. The short-term index is at zero, while the long-term index is at 3. The Trade Index has moved back into positive buy territory. Now we look for confirmation. The US dollar and 2-year US Treasury yield continue to act as negatives, but there are signs that they are starting to moderate.
February 24, 2023
( -4 )
We continue to be stuck here in neutral territory and wait for the next trend to begin. The VIX is slightly above 20, but sentiment has turned negative again, both are positive signs for the bulls. The short-term index is at -4 while the long-term index is at 0. We are once again at an inflection point in the markets. The US dollar and 2-year US Treasury yield continue to act as negatives.
February 17, 2023
( +1 )
Another slightly lower week for the S&P500, but some damage seems to have occurred beneath the surface. The VIX is stuck at 20 and sentiment has turned just slightly positive, both are neutral readings and that’s exactly where the index currently stands. The short-term index is at -1 while the long-term index is at +2. We are at an inflection point in the markets. We remain optimistic but increasingly cautious.
February 10, 2023
( +5 )
A slightly lower week for the S&P500, but some damage seems to have occurred beneath the surface. The VIX is back above 20 and sentiment has turned positive, both are good signs for the bears. The short-term index is at 0 while the long-term index is at +5. We are starting to see signs of a major test to the bullish 2023 uptrend. We remain optimistic but increasingly cautious.
February 3, 2023
( +8)
The Fed announcement proved to be positive and the indexes resumed their uptrend this week. Sentiment remains negative and the VIX has settled at or below 20; both are positive signs for the bulls. The short-term index is at +4, while the long-term index is at +4. We broke the major downtrend lines on the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 last week. Momentum continues to be positive, but we are starting to look overbought again.
January 27, 2023
( +10 )
Tailwinds resumed this week. The bullish readings remain intact as we burned off some overbought readings last week. Sentiment is dropping again and the VIX has settled at or below 20; both are positive signs for the bulls. The short-term index is at +5, while the long-term index is at +5. We broke the major downtrend lines on the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000. Momentum continues to be positive, but we are starting to look overbought again.
January 20, 2023
( +9)
A mixed week for the market, that was saved by a strong end of week rally. Bullish readings remain intact as we burned off some overbought indicators. Sentiment is now neural but the VIX is starting to settle at or below 20; both are positive signs for the bulls. The short-term index is at +4, while the long-term index is at +5. We remain up against a major downtrend line on the S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000, if we can break it, look to add risk. Otherwise, this may prove to just be a rebound in a cyclical bull market.
January 13, 2023
( +10 )
A strong week for markets. We have moved to very bullish readings and are close to overbought levels. Sentiment remains negative and the VIX is below 20; both are positive signs for the bulls. The short-term index is at +5, while the long-term index is at +5. We are up against a major downtrend line on the Wilshire 5000, if we can break it, look to add risk on pullbacks.
January 6, 2023
( +3)
A strong Friday after a choppy week for the S&P 500. We have moved to bullish reading and now watch to see if we build momentum here. Sentiment remains negative. As we mentioned last week we continue to see positive divergences in the VIX and relative strength measures. The short-term index is at +2, while the long-term index is at -3. Look to start adding to equity exposure.
December 31, 2022
( -5 )
A choppy week for the S&P 500 as we continue to fight market headwinds. Sentiment remains negative as the Fed dampens market enthusiasm. One small silver lining is that we are seeing positive divergences in the VIX and relative strength measures. The short-term index is at -2, while the long-term index is at -3. Stay cautious.
December 16, 2022
( -8)
We got more than just an expected pause this week with the S&P 500 down over two percent. We are back in strong headwind conditions. Sentiment continues to worsen as the Fed dampens market entusiasm. Seasonal factors should serve as tailwinds soon. The short-term index is at -5, while the long-term index is at -3. Stay cautious
December 2, 2022
( +7 )
Another up week as the market continues to consolidate November gains. The short-term indicator has been positive for a couple of weeks now and sits at +3, while the long-term indicator is positive at +4. Sentiment shows that many investors don’t believe the rally is real and that’s a positive. Seasonal factors should take a pause until mid-December when we should continue to see tailwinds.
November 18, 2022
( +7)
Inflation concerns have moderated and after a 6% pop the previous week; we moved sideways this week and retained most of the gains. The short-term indicator has been positive for a couple of weeks now and sits at +4, while the long-term indicator is positive at +3. Seasonal factors should continue to be a tailwind.
November 11, 2022
( +1 )
The expected market pause has materialized; the question is now how long and or severe will it be. We are now at critical levels that need to hold, or our bullish thesis will evaporate. Sentiment is back down to bearish levels we saw in late June and relative strength levels are oversold. This is a critical week as traders return from summer vacation and volume picks up.
October 30, 2022
( +6)
A flat week that allowed the markets to digest recent gains. The long-term indicators continue to flash buy, which signals possible continued strength. The short-term tactical index is at +4, while the long-term strategic index is at 2. Sentiment is still at negative levels; this plus positive money flows gives us hope that this rally can continue.
September 2, 2022
( -8 )
The expected market pause has materialized; the question is now how long and or severe will it be. We are now at critical levels that need to hold, or our bullish thesis will evaporate. Sentiment is back down to bearish levels we saw in late June and relative strength levels are oversold. This is a critical week as traders return from summer vacation and volume picks up.
August 5, 2022
( +8)
A flat week that allowed the markets to digest recent gains. The long-term indicators continue to flash buy, which signals possible continued strength. The short-term tactical index is at +2, while the long-term strategic index is at 2. Sentiment is still at negative levels; this plus positive money flows gives us hope that this rally can continue.
August 2, 2022
( +6 )
With the US dollar weakening and yields dropping, we are seeing some equity market strength. The long-term indicators are finally turning positive, which signals possible continued strength. The short-term tactical index is at +4, while the long-term strategic index is at 2. Sentiment is still at negative levels; this plus positive money flows gives us hope that a bottom may have been reached.
July 19, 2022
( +2)
We’ve stopped making lower lows; for the first time in months, we are seeing (short-term) higher highs. Nasdaq strength is building, and the US dollar is finally weakening. The short-term tactical index rose to +3, while the long-term strategic index is at -1. Sentiment is back to very negative levels; which is a positive. Positive money flow gives us hope that a bottom may have been reached
June 19, 2022
( -2 )
Nasdaq strength is building, but the rise of the US dollar continues to act as a headwind here. The short-term tactical index rose to 0, while the long-term strategic index is at -2. Sentiment is back to very negative levels; which is a positive. Late-day reversals and positive money flow give us hope that a bottom may have been reached We’ve stopped making lower lows; it’s now time to see higher highs. Stay patient.
July 7, 2022
( +2 )
A steady rise and a drop in yields have given some life to this hated market. The short-term tactical index is at +3, while the long-term strategic index is at -2. Sentiment is back to very negative levels; which is a positive. Stay patient.
June 10, 2022
( -9 )
An ugly day for the bulls. We look set for another leg down. The Trade Index has turned very negative again. The short-term tactical index is at -4, while the long-term strategic index is at -5. Sentiment is back to just slightly negative. One silver lining is that the VIX remains in the 20s, a positive divergence from what we saw when markets were previously testing their yearly lows.
June 3, 2022
( +2 )
Another choppy week with most of the gains from the previous week still intact. The market looks ready to make another move up, but it will need confirmation from the data and the ability to shrug off bad news. The short-term tactical index is at +2, while the long-term strategic index is at 0. Sentiment is back to neutral and no longer a tailwind.
May 27, 2022
( +5 )
A week ago we were looking at the SPX bouncing off its 38% Fibonacci retracement level just above 3800. A week later that level has held and we are up big for the week. The short-term tactical index is at +5, while the long-term strategic index is at 0. Sentiment had hit “historically” low levels and still shows signs that investors don’t believe the rally is real; this is very bullish.
May 20, 2022
( -6 )
SPX has bounced off its 38% Fibonacci retracement level just above 3800. The million dollar question is will it hold. We are beginning to see oversold indicators stabilize and “some” positive signs that the low may be in place. The short-term tactical index is at -3, while the long-term strategic index is at -3. Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels. After two straight months of weekly declines, we may be setting up for at least a pause.
May 16, 2022
( -6 )
We are beginning to see oversold indicators stabilize. Another moment of truth for the bulls is coming. We now have a support level at SPX 3858 that must hold. The short-term tactical index is now neutral at -2, while the long-term strategic index is at -4. Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels.
May 13, 2022
( -6 )
We now have a support level at SPX 3858 that we must now watch. It’s too early to know if we can hold support. The short-term tactical index is now neutral at -2, while the long-term strategic index is at -4. Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels.
May 6, 2022
( -10 )
Another sad day for the bulls. The short-term tactical index is back down to -5, while the long-term strategic index is at -5. The VIX was down on a down day, and RSI is making higher lows. Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels; if nothing else, this is a sign that is it time to have your shopping list ready.
May 4, 2022
( +1 )
The FED really helped the bulls today with some dovish interest rate messaging. A break of key support held Monday and we are already up about 5% from the lows. The short-term tactical index now sits at +3, while the long-term strategic index is at -2. Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels; if nothing else, this is a sign that is it time to have your shopping list ready.
April 28, 2022
( -7 )
We got the oversold rally that was expected, now comes the real test. The short-term tactical index sits at -3, while the long-term strategic index is at -4. It’s crunch time here. the VIX at 30 is adding to the volatility so expect a bumpy ride. Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive narrative. Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels; if nothing else, this is a sign that is it time to have your shopping list ready.
April 26, 2022
( -10 )
So much for yesterday’s impressive reversal. We are at major support with the markets oversold, but not at extremes. The short-term tactical index sits at -5, while the long-term strategic index is now at -5. It’s crunch time here. VIX above 30 is adding to the volatility. Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so bargain hunting at these levels is not unusual.
April 25, 2022
( -8 )
Today’s impressive reversal was welcome news for the bulls. We held above the March lows and possibly averted another leg down. The short-term tactical index sits at -4, while the long-term strategic index is now at -4. Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so bargain hunting at these levels is not unusual.
April 22, 2022
( -10 )
The Trade Index was hit hard again today and is deep in bear mode. We are now on the verge of another leg down. The short-term tactical index sits at -5, while the long-term strategic index is now at -5. Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so bargain hunting at these levels is not unusual.
April 19, 2022
( -2 )
A good day for the bulls and the best day we’ve seen in over a month. We move to neutral on the Trade Index, but will need to see some follow-through and the VIX below 20 before we get excited. The short-term tactical index sits at 0, while the long-term strategic index is now at -2. Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so bargain hunting at these levels is not unusual.
April 18, 2022
( -9 )
The downturn we saw forming last week continues. Fed rate hike comments continue to shoot down the bulls. The short-term tactical index sits at -4, while the long-term strategic index is down to -5. The momentum off recent lows has stalled. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so at some point, bargin hunting should kick in.
April 11, 2022
( -9 )
The downturn we saw forming last week continues. Fed rate hike comments continue to shoot down the bulls. The short-term tactical index has fallen again to -4, while the long-term strategic index is suddenly down again to -5. The momentum off recent lows has stalled. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum.
April 8, 2022
( -5 )
The downturn we saw forming midweek continues. Fed rate hike comments seem to have put fear in the bulls. The short-term tactical index has fallen again to -2, while the long-term strategic index is suddenly down to -3. The momentum off recent lows has stalled. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum.
April 6, 2022
( -2 )
The setbacks for the bulls continue. The Trade Index has made a u-turn over the past few days and we are once again on the verge of another leg down. The short-term tactical index has fallen again to -1, while the long-term strategic index is suddenly down to -1. The possibility of a false breakout is back on the table. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum.
April 5, 2022
( +3 )
A setback today for the bulls, just as momentum was starting to build. Many of the weekly (long term) signals that were turning positive yesterday have paused. The Trade Index continues to flash a modest bullish signal. The short-term tactical index has fallen to +2, while the long-term strategic index is suddenly back down to +1. The possibility of a false breakout is back on the table; but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, we’ll need to climb a call of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
April 4, 2022
( +9 )
The market continues to climb a wall of worry. For the first time in months, many of the weekly (long term) signals are starting to turn positive. The Trade Index continues to flash a bullish signal. The short-term tactical index is now at a maximum +5, while the long-term strategic index is up to +4. The possibility of a false breakout is fading and with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to start another leg higher. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
April 1, 2022
( +6 )
A flat week for the markets, but considering we’ve been up big over the previous weeks, that’s still a big positive for the bulls. The Trade Index continues to flash a bullish signal. The short-term tactical index is holding strong at +4, while the long-term strategic index is up to +2. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 31, 2022
( +4 )
The VIX closed just above 20 today, and S&P 500 is now slightly negative for the week. Momentum is fading, but the Trade Index continues to be positive. The short-term tactical index is holding positive at +3, while the long-term strategic index has dropped to +1. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 30, 2022
( +7 )
A down day with very little damage done. The VIX remains below 20 and today provided a welcome breath after four straight up days. The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is holding firm at +4, while the long-term strategic index sits at positive +3. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 29, 2022
( +9 )
The VIX closed below 20 today, while the Trade Index is firmly in positive territory and continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is holding firm at +5, while the long-term strategic index is gaining strength at sits at +4. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 25, 2022
( +6 )
Another positive week for the markets. We saw the VIX drop and momentum build. The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is holding firm at +4, while the long-term strategic index is gaining strength at sits at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 24, 2022
( +6 )
After a mixed opening, all sectors were able to close positive and confirmed that momentum is still with the bulls. The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is up to +4, while the long-term strategic index is gaining strength at sits at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 23, 2022
( +3 )
A down day that appears not to have caused much damage. The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is at +2, while the long-term strategic index is at +1. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 22, 2022
( +6 )
The short-term tactical index is up to +4, while the long-term strategic index is gaining strength at sits at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 21, 2022
( +5 )
A mixed day that allowed the bulls to hold onto recent gains. The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is at +3, while the long-term strategic index is at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persist, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 17, 2022
( +6 )
Friday provided the exact medicine this weak market was looking for. We held and actually built on recent gains. The Trade Index is now positive and flashing buy. The short-term tactical index is at +4, while the long-term strategic index sits at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persist, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.
March 17, 2022
( +2 )
After a tough opening, markets were able to build on recent momentum. We are now bullish for the first time in weeks. We’ll need this rally to build or at least hold; to give us confidence that this is not a dead cat bounce. The short-term tactical index remains a -3, while the long-term strategic index continues to improve and is at -1. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 16, 2022
( +1 )
The momentum that has been building over the last couple of days continued today and the Trade Index sits in neutral territory. The short-term tactical index is at +3, while the long-term strategic index sits at –2. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 15, 2022
( -7 )
Finally, an up day for the bulls to enjoy. The late February lows continue to hold, as we see market internals improving. The short-term tactical index rose to -3, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -4. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 14, 2022
( - 10 )
Another ugly day for the bulls. The VIX continues to sit above 30 as the late February lows are barely holding. The short-term tactical index is at -5, while the long-term strategic index sits at -5. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 11, 2022
( -10 )
Another down week for the markets as the S&P 500 drops almost 3%. We need to see the late February lows hold if we hope to see any type of rally forming.. The short-term tactical index dropped again to 5 while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 10, 2022
( - 6 )
A down day, but markets are trying to find a bottom as the VIX continues to slowly drop. We may be seeing signs of a rally forming. The short-term tactical index is at -3, while the long-term strategic index sits at -3. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 9, 2022
( -4 )
The first really positive day for the bulls in almost a full week. The late February lows continue to hold and we appear to be building a bit of momentum. The short-term tactical index rose to -2, while the long-term strategic index is rebounding and sits at -2. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 8, 2022
( - 9 )
Markets continue to try and find a bottom as the VIX holds steady in the high 30s. The short-term tactical index is back down to -5, while the long-term strategic index sits at -4. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 7, 2022
( -10 )
It was an ugly day for the bulls. A continued spike in the price of oil is leading to recession worries. The market is on edge. The short-term tactical index dropped again to -5, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 4, 2022
( - 7 )
As the VIX remains over 30, we continue to see wild intraday swings. Continued volatility has resulted in a lack of firm footing for any rally to build on. The short-term tactical index dropped back down to -3, while the long-term strategic index sits at -4. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 3, 2022
( 0 )
We continue our sideways moves that frustrate both bears and bulls alike. Ukraine and inflation-related news continues to trickle in and swings markets. Last week’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short/mid-term bottom is in place. The short-term tactical index rose again to +3, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -3. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 2, 2022
( 0 )
A positive day with the Trade Index now in neutral territory. With the VIX over 30, we will continue to see wild intraday swings. Last week’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short-mid term bottom is in place. The short-term tactical index moved higher to +2 today, while the long-term strategic index sits at -2. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
March 1, 2022
( -7 )
The VIX continues to inch higher as markets wait for Ukrain and inflation-related news to trickle in. Thursday’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short/mid-term bottom is in place. The short-term tactical index dropped back down to -3, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -4. Sentiment continues to grow more positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 28, 2022
( -4 )
With the VIX over 30, we are getting wild intraday swings. Today was a sideways day as the market tries to decide on the direction of the next move. Last week’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short-mid term bottom is in place. The short-term tactical index remains at -1, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -3. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 25, 2022
( -4 )
A historically volatile week ended with markets in positive territory. Thursday’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short-mid term bottom is in place. The short-term tactical index has risen to -1, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -3. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 24, 2022
( -8 )
If reversals can mark a bottom, today’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal from the gap down open was incredible and marks the biggest one-day point move, going back a half-century. The short-term tactical index sits at -3, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -4. Sentiment continues to grow more positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 23, 2022
( -10 )
The S&P 500 tested the 2022 lows and support looks tenuous. The short-term tactical index remains at -5, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 22, 2022
( -10 )
With the VIX in the high 20’s every move higher has to be treated with suspicion. Today’s early rally disappeared and we closed lower for a third straight day. The short-term tactical index remains at -5, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 18, 2022
( -10 )
The S&P 500 closed lower for a second day ended the week down 1.58%. The short-term tactical index moved down to -5, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5. With the VIX in the mid 20’s, we are now at a maximum -10 reading on the Trade Index. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 17, 2022
( -5 )
Volatility is making this a very difficult market to navigate. Today’s down day wiped out gains from early in the week. VIX is now in the upper 20’s and volatility remains high. The short-term tactical index moved down to -2, while the long-term strategic index is back down to -3. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 16, 2022
( +2 )
A mixed day where we held much of the gains of the previous day. The VIX is now in the mid 20’s and volatility remains high. The short-term tactical index moved up to +2, while the long-term strategic index is improving and sits at -0. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 15, 2022
( 0 )
The news that Olaf Scholz was in Moscow and Putin was listening helped markets today. The VIX is still in the upper 20’s and volatility remains high. The short-term tactical index moved up to +1, while the long-term strategic index is improving and sits at -1. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 14, 2022
( -5 )
The Trade Index remains in negative territory for a second day, strengthening the case that the bears are in charge here. The VIX is now firmly in the upper 20’s and volatility has returned. The short-term tactical index remains at -2, while the long-term strategic index is now at -3. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 11, 2022
( - 6 )
Friday’s selloff dropped the Trade Index back into negative territory. The VIX is now in the upper 20’s and volatility has returned. The short-term tactical index moved down to -2, while the long-term strategic index is down to -4. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist.
February 10, 2022
( -1 )
Unfortunately, today’s late-day drop meant we did not get the bullish confirmation we were looking for yesterday. The Trade Index is back in neutral territory, and once again we wait to see where the next move will take us. The short-term tactical index moved down to +2, while the long-term strategic index also moved down to -3. The VIX has risen back up to the mid-twenties, so expect heightened volatility. We are once again in wait-and-see mode.