THE BLOG:

Helping you navigate the market’s ongoing journey.

September 2, 2022
( -8 )

The expected market pause has materialized; the question is now how long and or severe will it be. We are now at critical levels that need to hold, or our bullish thesis will evaporate. Sentiment is back down to bearish levels we saw in late June and relative strength levels are oversold. This is a critical week as traders return from summer vacation and volume picks up.

August 5, 2022
( +8)

A flat week that allowed the markets to digest recent gains. The long-term indicators continue to flash buy, which signals possible continued strength. The short-term tactical index is at +2, while the long-term strategic index is at 2. Sentiment is still at negative levels; this plus positive money flows gives us hope that this rally can continue.

August 2, 2022
( +6 )

With the US dollar weakening and yields dropping, we are seeing some equity market strength. The long-term indicators are finally turning positive, which signals possible continued strength. The short-term tactical index is at +4, while the long-term strategic index is at 2. Sentiment is still at negative levels; this plus positive money flows gives us hope that a bottom may have been reached.

July 19, 2022
( +2)

We’ve stopped making lower lows; for the first time in months, we are seeing (short-term) higher highs.  Nasdaq strength is building, and the US dollar is finally weakening. The short-term tactical index rose to +3, while the long-term strategic index is at -1.  Sentiment is back to very negative levels; which is a positive.  Positive money flow gives us hope that a bottom may have been reached  

June 19, 2022
( -2 )

Nasdaq strength is building, but the rise of the US dollar continues to act as a headwind here. The short-term tactical index rose to 0, while the long-term strategic index is at -2. Sentiment is back to very negative levels; which is a positive. Late-day reversals and positive money flow give us hope that a bottom may have been reached We’ve stopped making lower lows; it’s now time to see higher highs. Stay patient.

July 7, 2022
( +2 )

A steady rise and a drop in yields have given some life to this hated market. The short-term tactical index is at +3, while the long-term strategic index is at -2.  Sentiment is back to very negative levels; which is a positive.  Stay patient.   

June 10, 2022
( -9 )

An ugly day for the bulls.  We look set for another leg down.  The Trade Index has turned very negative again.  The short-term tactical index is at -4, while the long-term strategic index is at -5.  Sentiment is back to just slightly negative.  One silver lining is that the VIX remains in the 20s, a positive divergence from what we saw when markets were previously testing their yearly lows. 

June 3, 2022
( +2 )

Another choppy week with most of the gains from the previous week still intact. The market looks ready to make another move up, but it will need confirmation from the data and the ability to shrug off bad news. The short-term tactical index is at +2, while the long-term strategic index is at 0. Sentiment is back to neutral and no longer a tailwind.

May 27, 2022
( +5 )

A week ago we were looking at the SPX bouncing off  its 38% Fibonacci retracement level just above 3800.  A week later that level has held and we are up big for the week. The short-term tactical index is at +5, while the long-term strategic index is at 0.  Sentiment had hit “historically” low levels and still shows signs that investors don’t believe the rally is real; this is very bullish.   

May 20, 2022
( -6 )

SPX has bounced off  its 38% Fibonacci retracement level just above 3800.  The million dollar question is will it hold.  We are beginning to see oversold indicators stabilize and “some” positive signs that the low may be in place. The short-term tactical index is at -3, while the long-term strategic index is at -3.  Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels.  After two straight months of weekly declines, we may be setting up for at least a pause. 

May 16, 2022
( -6 )

We are beginning to see oversold indicators stabilize. Another moment of truth for the bulls is coming.  We now have a support level at SPX 3858 that must hold.  The short-term tactical index is now neutral at -2, while the long-term strategic index is at -4.  Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels.   

May 13, 2022
( -6 )

We now have a support level at SPX 3858 that we must now watch.  It’s too early to know if we can hold support.  The short-term tactical index is now neutral at -2, while the long-term strategic index is at -4.  Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels. 

May 6, 2022
( -10 )

Another sad day for the bulls.  The short-term tactical index is back down to -5, while the long-term strategic index is at -5.   The VIX was down on a down day, and RSI is making higher lows.  Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels; if nothing else, this is a sign that is it time to have your shopping list ready.     

May 4, 2022
( +1 )

The FED really helped the bulls today with some dovish interest rate messaging. A break of key support held Monday and we are already up about 5% from the lows. The short-term tactical index now sits at +3, while the long-term strategic index is at -2. Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels; if nothing else, this is a sign that is it time to have your shopping list ready.

April 28, 2022
( -7 )

We got the oversold rally that was expected, now comes the real test.  The short-term tactical index sits at -3, while the long-term strategic index is at -4.  It’s crunch time here. the VIX at 30 is adding to the volatility so expect a bumpy ride. Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive narrative. Sentiment has hit “historically” low levels; if nothing else, this is a sign that is it time to have your shopping list ready.   

April 26, 2022
( -10 )

So much for yesterday’s impressive reversal. We are at major support with the markets oversold, but not at extremes.  The short-term tactical index sits at -5, while the long-term strategic index is now at -5.  It’s crunch time here. VIX above 30 is adding to the volatility. Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so bargain hunting at these levels is not unusual.     

April 25, 2022
( -8 )

Today’s impressive reversal was welcome news for the bulls.  We held above the March lows and possibly averted another leg down. The short-term tactical index sits at -4, while the long-term strategic index is now at -4.  Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so bargain hunting at these levels is not unusual.    

April 22, 2022
( -10 )

The Trade Index was hit hard again today and is deep in bear mode. We are now on the verge of another leg down. The short-term tactical index sits at -5, while the long-term strategic index is now at -5.  Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so bargain hunting at these levels is not unusual.   

April 19, 2022
( -2 )

A good day for the bulls and the best day we’ve seen in over a month.  We move to neutral on the Trade Index, but will need to see some follow-through and the VIX below 20 before we get excited.  The short-term tactical index sits at 0, while the long-term strategic index is now at -2.  Keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so bargain hunting at these levels is not unusual.   

April 18, 2022
( -9 )

The downturn we saw forming last week continues. Fed rate hike comments continue to shoot down the bulls. The short-term tactical index sits at -4, while the long-term strategic index is down to -5. The momentum off recent lows has stalled. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum. Sentiment has hit an almost decade low, so at some point, bargin hunting should kick in.

April 11, 2022
( -9 )

The downturn we saw forming last week continues. Fed rate hike comments continue to shoot down the bulls. The short-term tactical index has fallen again to -4, while the long-term strategic index is suddenly down again to -5. The momentum off recent lows has stalled. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum.

April 8, 2022
( -5 )

The downturn we saw forming midweek continues. Fed rate hike comments seem to have put fear in the bulls. The short-term tactical index has fallen again to -2, while the long-term strategic index is suddenly down to -3. The momentum off recent lows has stalled.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum.  

April 6, 2022
( -2 )

The setbacks for the bulls continue. The Trade Index has made a u-turn over the past few days and we are once again on the verge of another leg down.  The short-term tactical index has fallen again to -1, while the long-term strategic index is suddenly down to -1. The possibility of a false breakout is back on the table.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail any positive momentum.  

April 5, 2022
( +3 )

A setback today for the bulls,  just as momentum was starting to build.  Many of the weekly (long term) signals that were turning positive yesterday have paused. The Trade Index continues to flash a modest bullish signal. The short-term tactical index has fallen to +2, while the long-term strategic index is suddenly back down to +1. The possibility of a false breakout is back on the table; but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, we’ll need to climb a call of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.  

April 4, 2022
( +9 )

The market continues to climb a wall of worry.  For the first time in months, many of the weekly (long term) signals are starting to turn positive. The Trade Index continues to flash a bullish signal. The short-term tactical index is now at a maximum +5, while the long-term strategic index is up to +4. The possibility of a false breakout is fading and with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to start another leg higher. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.  

April 1, 2022
( +6 )

A flat week for the markets, but considering we’ve been up big over the previous weeks, that’s still a big positive for the bulls. The Trade Index continues to flash a bullish signal. The short-term tactical index is holding strong at +4, while the long-term strategic index is up to +2. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis. 

March 31, 2022
( +4 )

The VIX closed just above 20 today, and S&P 500 is now slightly negative for the week.  Momentum is fading, but the Trade Index continues to be positive. The short-term tactical index is holding positive at +3, while the long-term strategic index has dropped to +1. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis. 

March 30, 2022
( +7 )

A down day with very little damage done.  The VIX remains below 20 and today provided a welcome breath after four straight up days.  The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is holding firm at +4, while the long-term strategic index sits at positive +3. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis. 

March 29, 2022
( +9 )

The VIX closed below 20 today, while the Trade Index is firmly in positive territory and continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is holding firm at +5, while the long-term strategic index is gaining strength at sits at +4. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis. 

March 25, 2022
( +6 )

Another positive week for the markets.  We saw the VIX drop and momentum build.  The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is holding firm at +4, while the long-term strategic index is gaining strength at sits at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis. 

March 24, 2022
( +6 )

After a mixed opening, all sectors were able to close positive and confirmed that momentum is still with the bulls. The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is up to +4, while the long-term strategic index is gaining strength at sits at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.

March 23, 2022
( +3 )

A down day that appears not to have caused much damage.  The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is at +2, while the long-term strategic index is at +1. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.

March 22, 2022
( +6 )

The short-term tactical index is up to +4, while the long-term strategic index is gaining strength at sits at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persists, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry. We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.

March 21, 2022
( +5 )

A mixed day that allowed the bulls to hold onto recent gains. The Trade Index continues to flash buy. The short-term tactical index is at +3, while the long-term strategic index is at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persist, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.

March 17, 2022
( +6 )

Friday provided the exact medicine this weak market was looking for. We held and actually built on recent gains. The Trade Index is now positive and flashing buy. The short-term tactical index is at +4, while the long-term strategic index sits at +2. The possibility of a false breakout persist, but with sentiment still positive for the bulls, the market seems ready to climb a wall of worry.  We will need to keep an eye on the war in Ukraine and inflation worries, as they can derail the bullish thesis.

March 17, 2022
( +2 )

After a tough opening, markets were able to build on recent momentum.  We are now bullish for the first time in weeks.  We’ll need this rally to build or at least hold; to give us confidence that this is not a dead cat bounce.  The short-term tactical index remains a -3, while the long-term strategic index continues to improve and is at -1. Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 16, 2022
( +1 )

The momentum that has been building over the last couple of days continued today and the Trade Index sits in neutral territory.   The short-term tactical index is at +3, while the long-term strategic index sits at –2.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist.   

March 15, 2022
( -7 )

Finally, an up day for the bulls to enjoy. The late February lows continue to hold, as we see market internals improving.  The short-term tactical index rose to -3, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -4.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 14, 2022
( - 10 )

Another ugly day for the bulls.  The VIX continues to sit above 30 as the late February lows are barely holding.  The short-term tactical index is at -5, while the long-term strategic index sits at -5.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 11, 2022
( -10 )

Another down week for the markets as the S&P 500 drops almost 3%.  We need to see the late February lows hold if we hope to see any type of rally forming.. The short-term tactical index dropped again to  5 while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 10, 2022
( - 6 )

A down day, but markets are trying to find a bottom as the VIX continues to slowly drop.  We may be seeing signs of a rally forming.  The short-term tactical index is at -3, while the long-term strategic index sits at -3.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 9, 2022
( -4 )

The first really positive day for the bulls in almost a full week.  The late February lows continue to hold and we appear to be building a bit of momentum.  The short-term tactical index rose to -2, while the long-term strategic index is rebounding and sits at -2.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 8, 2022
( - 9 )

Markets continue to try and find a bottom as the VIX holds steady in the high 30s.   The short-term tactical index is back down to -5, while the long-term strategic index sits at -4.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 7, 2022
( -10 )

It was an ugly day for the bulls. A continued spike in the price of oil is leading to recession worries. The market is on edge.  The short-term tactical index dropped again to -5, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 4, 2022
( - 7 )

As the VIX remains over 30, we continue to see wild intraday swings.  Continued volatility has resulted in a lack of firm footing for any rally to build on.  The short-term tactical index dropped back down to -3, while the long-term strategic index sits at -4.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 3, 2022
( 0 )

We continue our sideways moves that frustrate both bears and bulls alike. Ukraine and inflation-related news continues to trickle in and swings markets. Last week’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short/mid-term bottom is in place.  The short-term tactical index rose again to +3, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -3.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 2, 2022
( 0 )

A positive day with the Trade Index now in neutral territory.  With the VIX over 30, we will continue to see wild intraday swings.  Last week’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short-mid term bottom is in place.  The short-term tactical index moved higher to +2 today, while the long-term strategic index sits at -2.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

March 1, 2022
( -7 )

The VIX continues to inch higher as markets wait for Ukrain and inflation-related news to trickle in. Thursday’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short/mid-term bottom is in place.  The short-term tactical index dropped back down to -3, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -4.  Sentiment continues to grow more positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 28, 2022
( -4 )

With the VIX over 30, we are getting wild intraday swings. Today was a sideways day as the market tries to decide on the direction of the next move. Last week’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short-mid term bottom is in place.  The short-term tactical index remains at -1, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -3.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 25, 2022
( -4 )

A historically volatile week ended with markets in positive territory.  Thursday’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal gives us very high confidence that a short-mid term bottom is in place.  The short-term tactical index has risen to -1, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -3.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 24, 2022
( -8 )

If reversals can mark a bottom, today’s historic NASDAQ 886 points reversal from the gap down open was incredible and marks the biggest one-day point move,  going back a half-century.  The short-term tactical index sits at -3, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -4.  Sentiment continues to grow more positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 23, 2022
( -10 )

The S&P 500 tested the 2022 lows and support looks tenuous.  The short-term tactical index remains at -5, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 22, 2022
( -10 )

With the VIX in the high 20’s every move higher has to be treated with suspicion. Today’s early rally disappeared and we closed lower for a third straight day. The short-term tactical index remains at -5, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but war in the Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 18, 2022
( -10 )

The S&P 500 closed lower for a second day ended the week down 1.58%.  The short-term tactical index moved down to -5, while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -5.  With the VIX in the mid 20’s, we are now at a maximum -10 reading on the Trade Index.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist.

February 17, 2022
( -5 )

Volatility is making this a very difficult market to navigate.  Today’s down day wiped out gains from early in the week. VIX is now in the upper 20’s and volatility remains high. The short-term tactical index moved down to -2, while the long-term strategic index is back down to -3.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 16, 2022
( +2 )

A mixed day where we held much of the gains of the previous day. The VIX is now in the mid 20’s and volatility remains high. The short-term tactical index moved up to +2, while the long-term strategic index is improving and sits at -0.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist.

February 15, 2022
( 0 )

The news that Olaf Scholz was in Moscow and Putin was listening helped markets today. The VIX is still in the upper 20’s and volatility remains high. The short-term tactical index moved up to +1, while the long-term strategic index is improving and sits at -1.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 14, 2022
( -5 )

The Trade Index remains in negative territory for a second day, strengthening the case that the bears are in charge here. The VIX is now firmly in the upper 20’s and volatility has returned. The short-term tactical index remains at -2, while the long-term strategic index is now at -3.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 11, 2022
( - 6 )

Friday’s selloff dropped the Trade Index back into negative territory. The VIX is now in the upper 20’s and volatility has returned. The short-term tactical index moved down to -2, while the long-term strategic index is down to -4.  Sentiment continues to be positive for the bulls, but Ukraine and inflation worries persist. 

February 10, 2022
( -1 )

Unfortunately, today’s late-day drop meant we did not get the bullish confirmation we were looking for yesterday. The Trade Index is back in neutral territory, and once again we wait to see where the next move will take us.  The short-term tactical index moved down to +2, while the long-term strategic index also moved down to  -3.  The VIX has risen back up to the mid-twenties, so expect heightened volatility.  We are once again in wait-and-see mode.

February 9, 2022
( +6 )

We were starting to see early signs of tailwinds forming late yesterday and they re-appeared with a bang this morning; driving the Trade Index into bullish territory. The short-term tactical index moved up again to a maximum +5, while the long-term strategic index surged higher to +1. The VIX has dropped to 20. We are once again constructive. Another day in this bullish range will be needed to confirm our optimism.

February 8, 2022
( +1 )

Crosswinds continue as markets decide on the direction of the next move.   The short-term tactical index moved up slightly to +4 while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -3.  The VIX remains in the low to mid-20s.  Expect crosswinds and volatility to continue. We are in wait-and-see mode.    

February 7, 2022
( -1 )

Crosswinds continue as markets decide on the direction of the next move.   The short-term tactical index remains at +3 while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -4.  The VIX remains in the low to mid-20s.  Expect crosswinds and volatility to continue. We are in wait-and-see mode.    

February 4, 2022
( -1 )

After the Facebook miss on Thursday, Amazon helped stabilize markets.   The short-term tactical index is back up to +3 while the long-term strategic index is at a bearish -4.  The VIX remains in the low to mid-20s.  Expect crosswinds and volatility to continue. We are in wait-and-see mode. 

February 3, 2022
( -4 )

The Facebook miss resulted in a setback for the markets. Headwinds returned and the rebound is once again in question.  The short-term tactical index is down to +1 while the long-term strategic index is back to a very bearish -5.  The VIX remains in the low to mid-20s.  Amazon earnings have futures up.  Expect volotility to continue.  

February 2, 2022
( +3 )

Another positive day that continues to gain momentum. The market is now rising on its own merits.  The short-term tactical index has risen to +4 while the long-term strategic index has moved up to -1.  The VIX continues to drop to the low 20s.  We are very constructive here as tailwinds continue to build. 

February 1, 2022
( +1 )

Another positive day where the market moved up despite the oversold level now behind us. The market is now rising on its own merits.  The short-term tactical index has risen to +3, while the long-term strategic index has moved up to -2.  The VIX continues to drop to the low 20s.  We are very constructive here as tailwinds continue to build. 

January 28, 2022
( -8 )

We finally got the oversold bounce we were expecting as the shorts closed out their positions for the weekend.  For now, the bears are still in charge and the Trade Index continues to flash warning signs.  The short-term tactical index is at -4, while the long-term strategic index moved up to  -4.  On the positive side, the VIX has dropped to the 20s and the bulls are pointing to sentiment readings at the lowest level since 2013.  We are also still extremely oversold; so expect wild swings with a bias to the upside. 

January 27, 2022
( -9 )

Another volatile day resulted in a negative day. The bears are still in charge here and the Trade Index continues to flash warning signs.  The short-term tactical index is at -4, while the long-term strategic index remains at -5.  Recent weekly sentiment readings are at dire levels and now at the lowest level since 2013.  We are also still extremely oversold.  The VIX is above 30, and history tells us that it’s likely to remain elevated for a couple more days.

January 26, 2022
( -9 )

Another volatile day resulted in minimal overall movement. The bears are still in charge here and the Trade Index continues to flash warning signs.  The short-term tactical index is now at -4, while the long-term strategic index remains at -5.  Recent weekly sentiment readings are at dire levels where we have seen market bottoms over the past decade, and we are still very oversold.  The VIX is in the 30s and history tells us that it’s likely to remain elevated for a couple more days. 

January 25, 2022
( -10 )

We were not able to build on Monday’s impressive (but expected) reversal.  The bears are still in charge here and the Trade Index continues to flash warning signs.  The short-term tactical index is still at -5, while the long-term strategic index is down to -5.  Recent weekly sentiment readings are at dire levels where we have seen market bottoms over the past decade, and we are still very oversold.  The VIX is in the 30s and history tells us that it’s likely to remain elevated for a couple more days. 

January 21, 2022
( -10 )

An ugly week for the bulls, with the S&P 500 down almost 6%.  The January and December lows have been breached and we now sit at the 200 DMA.  The bears are in charge here and the Trade Index continues to flash warning signs. The short-term tactical index is at -5, while the long-term strategic index is down to -5.  There are some positives. Recent sentiment readings are at dire levels where we have seen market bottoms over the past decade, and we are now very oversold.  The VIX is firmly in the upper 20 range, so be ready for another volatile week ahead.   

January 20, 2022
( -10 )

We are at -10 tonight, the lowest Trade Index reading since April 2020.  The January and December lows have been breached.  The bears are in charge here and the Trade Index is flashing warning signs. The short-term tactical index is at -5, while the long-term strategic index is down to -5.  Recent sentiment today turned positive for the bulls.  The VIX is firmly in the 20’s for now;  another negative. Volatility makes this a difficult market to navigate.  We are now getting oversold. The S&P 500 200 DMA is the next support level to watch.      

January 19, 2022
( -9 )

Friday saw another intra-day reversal similar to what we saw on Monday, and that low continues to hold. The S&P was surprisingly flat for the week. The short-term tactical index remains unchanged at -1, while the long-term strategic index is still positive at +2.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment has turned more positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX continues to settle at or below 20; which is another positive.  Volatility makes this a difficult market to navigate.  We will continue to be constructive on the market until the Trade Index indicates otherwise. 

January 18, 2022
( -8 )

The January low did not hold today and the Trade Index saw a sharp drop.   We are at levels where we have bounced in the past, but internals are not encouraging for the bulls here. The short-term tactical index dropped sharply to -5, while the long-term strategic index is down to -3.  Recent sentiment has turned a bit more positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX closed above 20 for the first time since mid-December; which is another negative.  Volatility makes this a difficult market to navigate.  We are not at oversold levels yet. Watch the December lows for possible support levels.      

January 14, 2022
( +1 )

Friday saw another intra-day reversal similar to what we saw on Monday, and that low continues to hold. The S&P was surprisingly flat for the week. The short-term tactical index remains unchanged at -1, while the long-term strategic index is still positive at +2.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment has turned more positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX continues to settle at or below 20; which is another positive.  Volatility makes this a difficult market to navigate.  We will continue to be constructive on the market until the Trade Index indicates otherwise. 

January 13, 2022
( +1 )

An ugly day for the bulls, but Monday’s low continues to hold and the rebound remains intact. The short-term tactical index now sits at -1, while the long-term strategic index is positive at +2.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment has turned more positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX continues to settle around 20.  Crosswinds continue to make this a difficult market to navigate. With yields pulling back, a short-term bottom may be in place. 

January 12, 2022
( +6 )

Monday’s low continues to hold and the rebound remains intact. The short-term tactical index sits at +2, while the long-term strategic index is very positive at +4.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains mildly positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX continues to settle below 20.  Crosswinds continue to make this a difficult market to navigate. With yields pulling back, a short-term bottom may be in place. 

January 11, 2022
( +5 )

Monday’s low continues to hold.  It was an impressive reversal and we built on it today.  The short-term tactical index rose today and sits at +1, while the long-term strategic index remains very positive at +4.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains mildly positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX continues to settle below the 20 level.  Crosswinds continue to make this a difficult market to navigate. With yields pulling back, a short-term bottom may be in place. 

January 10, 2022
( -1 )

On days like today, all we need to focus on after throwing away our overflowing airsickness bag; is the huge reversal that materialized. It was impressive. The short-term tactical index sits at a -3, while the long-term strategic index remains positive at +2. We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains mildly positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX also saw a huge reversal and once again settled just below the 20 level. Crosswinds continue to make this a difficult market to navigate. Hopefully, today’s reversal means a short-term bottom is in place.

January 7, 2022
( +1 )

Many were glad to see the end to this volatile and difficult week.  Growth stocks were hit hard with the NASDAQ down almost 5%.  The Trade Index covers the overall market and our readings are still positive… for now. The short-term tactical index sits at a neutral -1, while the long-term strategic index remains positive at +2.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains mildly positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX has settled just below the 20 level.  Crosswinds continue to make this a difficult market to navigate. 

January 6, 2022
(+2 )

Considering the damage parts of the market have seen this week, today was a calming day.  The Trade Index covers the overall market and our readings are still positive… for now. The short-term tactical index sits at a neutral -1, while the long-term strategic index remains positive at +3.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX has settled right at the 20 level.  Crosswinds continue to make this a difficult market to navigate. 

January 5, 2022
( +1 )

Discipline trumps conviction and discipline told us early today that something unusual was dragging down the Nasdaq.  The Trade Index covers the overall market and our readings are still positive… for now. The short-term tactical index sits at a neutral -1, while the long-term strategic index remains positive at +2.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and interest rate risks remain market concerns. The VIX settled right at the 20 level.  Crosswinds are making this a very difficult market to navigate.

January 4, 2022
(+5 )

A very strange day.  We mentioned yesterday that “Nasdaq internals have now turned positive and the index looks ready to lead this next leg higher”.  Instead, the Nasdaq got beaten up, but was able to recover somewhat later in the day.  Nasdaq internals continue to look positive; so was today a washout of weak hands?  We shall see.  The short-term tactical index sits at +2, while the long-term strategic index remains strong at +3.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and inflation risks remain market concerns. The VIX has now settled below the 20 level.  Look for any pullbacks to add to market exposure. 

January 3, 2022
( +8 )

We got the strong start to 2022 we were expecting.  Nasdaq internals have now turned positive and the index looks ready to lead this next leg higher.  The short-term tactical index sits at +4, while the long-term strategic index continues to remain strong at +4.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and inflation risks remain market concerns. The VIX has now settled below the 20 level.  Look for any pullbacks to add to market exposure. 

December 31, 2021
(+5 )

Goodbye, and thank you 2021; the S&P gave investors a 27% gain for the year.  We closed slightly lower Friday, but are still near recent highs. The short-term tactical index sits at +2, while the long-term strategic index continues to remain positive at +3.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and inflation risks remain market concerns. The VIX continues to settle around the 18 level. Look for any pullbacks to add to market exposure. 

December 30, 2021
( +7 )

Nothing much happened today. The low volume, end of year trend continues. We closed slightly lower but are still near recent highs. The short-term tactical index sits at +4, while the long-term strategic index continues to remain positive at +3 We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment remains positive for the bulls. The negatives are that pandemic and inflation risks remain market concerns. The VIX continues to settle around the 18 level. Look for any pullbacks to add to market exposure.

December 29, 2021
( +9 )

The low volume, end of year trend continues.  We closed little changed and continue to hold on to recent gains. The short-term tactical index sits at +5, while the long-term strategic index continues to confirm the breakout and now sits at +4.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment is positive for the bulls.  The negatives are that pandemic and inflation risks remain market concerns.  The VIX continues to drop and has settled below the 18 level. Look for any pullbacks to add to market exposure. 

December 28, 2021
(+8 )

The S&P 500 closed slightly lower today on continued low volume.  The short-term tactical index sits at +5, while the long-term strategic index continues to confirm the breakout and now sits at +4.  We’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period, and recent sentiment is positive for the bulls.  The negatives are that pandemic and inflation risks remain market concerns.  The VIX continues to drop and has settled below the 20 level; if this continues, look for any pullbacks to add to market exposure.