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We got the oversold bounce we had expected.  With internals at extreme oversold levels, it was almost a certainty.  We now watch the recent lows for the S&P 500 at the 4500 level; this level will need to hold.  The short-term tactical index improved to -4, while the long-term strategic index is now at -2.  Readings from the December 1st low have been associated with major bounces during this Covid rally that started in the spring of 2020.  The positives are that we’re still in the middle of a seasonally strong period and recent sentiment has turned positive for the bull case.   The negatives are that pandemic risks continue and internals are still neutral at best.  Watch the VIX closely here, a drop below the 20 range, will be our first indicator that the bull market is back.  

December 2, 2021   7 PM EST